Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 798 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 10% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Georgia State @ South Alabama
Georgia State is prone to fouling. Against Arkansas State ten days ago, the Panthers yielded 42 free throw attempts. And while Arkansas State leads the nation in free throw attempts relative to field goal attempts, South Alabama’s 25th in the metric. It could be a problem, and it seems like one the market may have picked up on.
By a similar token, though, South Alabama struggles to defend the three, and Georgia State’s fifth nationally in three point percentage, and while Georgia State isn’t dominant on the offensive glass, they’re strong there while South Alabama’s weak.
Georgia State’s frustrations against Arkansas State catch the eye, but just because a mismatch is glaring doesn’t mean it’s the only mismatch happening. Overall, Georgia State should be favored here, even on the road.
Pick: Georgia State +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Weber State @ Idaho State
These picks rarely visit the same team multiple times—especially teams who’ve beaten us. This isn’t by design, but it’s a natural facet of our approach. The models we use correct for inefficiencies the market was on top of, and in a category with 353 teams, the sheer quantity of options prevails.
Yet, we’ve lost twice this season picking against Weber State, and we’re coming back for more tonight.
One loss was close—two points off, in which the favorite won but didn’t cover. One loss was not close, but not hopeless—an eight-point miss. These results, in themselves, mean nothing, but as sample size grows, they do become more significant.
Trying to reverse the trend makes sense tonight. Idaho State’s playing as a favorite in many models for only the second time this year. They’ve had few bad results, relative to expectations, and they’ve come on strong of late, picking up two surprising conference victories to enter the night with a winning conference record.
It’s possible we’re undervaluing Weber State. It’s also possible the market’s undervaluing Idaho State. With a gap this large (five points) between the market’s expectations and our own, we’re still in a comfortable position if we and the market meet in the middle.
Pick: Idaho State +2 (-110). Low confidence.
