Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,669 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball. We’re planning to do our NFL futures for the Wild Card Weekend tomorrow.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 33–39. We’re down 7.72 units.
Michigan State @ Illinois
Illinois’s been playing well since the Terrence Shannon Jr. suspension, but probably deceptively well. Michigan State’s quietly been playing some good basketball and just got bit on the road in Evanston. We like the Spartans to put themselves back on the radar tonight in Champaign.
Pick: Michigan State to win +155. Low confidence.
UCLA @ Utah
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara
Arizona State @ Washington
We’re not concerned about Utah getting swept on the Arizona road trip, and view some of the doubts about them as more a function of doubts surrounding the Pac-12 more broadly. We think they’ll bounce back before UCLA does. Elsewhere in that league, we don’t expect ASU’s little run to continue. They will lose a Pac-12 game, and we think it’ll happen tonight.
Between those—overlapping with both—Gonzaga goes to Santa Clara, and it has some excitement around it because Santa Clara’s coming off some good years, but this Broncos team isn’t quite what the last two were. Gonzaga’s down again, but the WCC is still theirs for the taking. We’ll lump them with the other two to give ourselves a good price.
Pick: Parlay – Utah, Gonzaga, Washington to win (+110). Low confidence.
