Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,655 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Iowa @ Purdue
Purdue’s coming off a loss and should bounce back, Iowa’s a fine 2-4 on the road this year but they aren’t exactly all-stars away from home. The game should get high scoring, and that will hopefully cause some stratification in our favor.
Pick: Purdue -8 (-110). Low confidence.
Northwestern @ Ohio State
Ohio State’s 1-9 stretch is and has been bad, and two of the losses in there—the home ones to Minnesota and Wisconsin—have been outright concerning. Chris Holtmann’s survived patches like this before, though. They haven’t been quite this bad, but in both the 2019 and 2020 conference seasons Ohio State ate a tough early losing streak. There’s still time for this team, and catching a Northwestern team getting its first breath after that brutal stretch isn’t a bad opportunity to turn it around.
Pick: Ohio State -5 (-110). Low confidence.
