Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,796 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 74–62–1 and we’re down 7.67 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington’s trying to even things up with Drexel tonight at the top of the CAA. Drexel won the matchup in Philly earlier this year. We like the Seahawks to even the score, and we think there might be some value from the final margin in that first meeting (15 points) being so wide.
Pick: UNC Wilmington to win –190. Low confidence.
Florida Atlantic @ UAB
UAB’s been playing better of late, but still not up to the level their roster’s probably capable of. This game—FAU coming to Bartow Arena—is one they won last year. We wouldn’t be shocked if they do it again, especially given FAU’s road struggles.
Pick: UAB +6 (–110). Low confidence.
