Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,893 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both its single-day and futures forms.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 108–75–1 and we’re down 2.48 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six units per weekday, but we’re doubling up today because we missed yesterday.
Nebraska @ Ohio State
We don’t like a single moneyline tonight, so spreads it is. Are we making a huge mistake with this one? Maybe. We’re going against the current. But we’re more worried about a letdown game for Ohio State than Nebraska. We think Nebraska might actually be hitting its stride (which is something that, in our little impression of the college basketball season, happens around this time of year and leads to some unexpected results relative to what the schedule would imply).
Pick: Nebraska +4 (–110). Low confidence.
Gonzaga vs. San Francisco
San Francisco gave up home-court advantage for this one, moving it to the Chase Center and what will doubtlessly be a less sympathetic crowd. We think that matters. San Francisco isn’t bad, and Gonzaga isn’t great, but everyone sees this coming: Gonzaga gets that second Q1 win tonight, and they do it on the “road.”
Pick: Gonzaga –3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
There are some absolutely ridiculous futures odds out right now on teams to make the NCAA Tournament. There’s arbitrage available. We’re taking these three teams under the following rationale:
- They flash very positive eROI using both our probabilities and Bart Torvik’s.
- They’re negatively correlated with one another, making them something of a hedge against each other. Because they’re in the same conference, they’re liable to knock one another out, but it’s most likely at least two of the three get in.
- We’re concerned about OU and TCU’s bubble cases, but not *this* concerned, and we only need one of the pair to make it, along with Texas making it, which is more than 95% likely after that win in Lubbock.
These won’t be up for long, but grab them if you can. We don’t want to get too far over our skis with this—we only have TCU and OU each at about a 3-in-4 likelihood of making the field—but the temptation to go big on TCU in particular is very strong. Hopefully these are still available tomorrow and we can grab a few other teams.
Pick: TCU to make tournament +190. Low confidence. x4
Pick: Oklahoma to make tournament –110. Low confidence. x4
Pick: Texas to make tournament –220. Low confidence. x4
