Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 874 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Just futures today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship
It would be very difficult at this point, in any men’s college basketball futures portfolio, to have too much money on Kansas. There’s no debate that they’re the best team in the country, with only three losses against the nation’s most challenging schedule and no significant flaws. Saturday’s victory in Waco removed all doubt, and whether they win the Big 12 Tournament or not, it’s looking as close to a sure bet as these things get that they’ll open the tournament in Omaha as the one-seed in the Midwest Region.
It would also be difficult to find odds too short to take with Kansas. They’re nearly a 25% favorite in our model, meaning even +350 would be justifiable. Grab them now, and put a lot on them, because hedging will always be a possibility from here (and, if you take bracket pools too seriously, this opens you up to pick someone else to win it all in whatever pools you’re in, given how many brackets will most likely have Kansas coming out on top).
There’s another team that’s jumping out right now, though, and that’s San Diego State. Between Duke’s loss at Wake Forest, Dayton’s lack of great wins, Gonzaga’s remaining challenges (Saint Mary’s is no pushover, and BYU looms in the WCC Tournament), and the likelihood the Big Ten Tournament will fell Maryland, San Diego State’s case for a number one seed is far from dead, and in the scenario in which they’re a two-seed, they’ll probably end up out west, playing the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight (should they advance to each) in Los Angeles. I don’t know how much travel affects performance in March, but not leaving Pacific Time between now and April can’t hurt.
Pick: Kansas +650. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego State +1600. Low confidence.
