Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,688 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
USC @ Colorado
This is pretty classic conference college basketball. You’ve got two roughly equivalent teams in terms of quality, one’s outperformed the other in terms of results, that one is on the road and has better recent results than the one who’s been outperformed. This points towards a Colorado correction, and at a crucial time for USC.
Pick: Colorado -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Washington State @ Stanford
Stanford’s been playing better of late, but not incredibly better, and if you give most power conference teams three straight chances against Arizona, UCLA, and USC they’ll look good at some point, with the expectation being low.
Washington State has a lot left to play for, with a shot to finish above .500 on the regular season and sneak into the NIT. It isn’t the most to play for, but it’s something, and I don’t get the idea Washington State views any of this as beneath them. They’re still building something in Pullman.
Pick: Washington State +2 (-104). Low confidence.
