Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,878 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks.
Active markets today: Only college basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 96–71–1 and we’re down 4.31 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
SMU @ Florida Atlantic
We think FAU is very overrated by prevailing narratives, and that SMU is very underrated, and that these ratings sometimes bleed into betting markets. Still, we really like our system right now, and this is the only play tonight which matches our criteria.
Pick: Florida Atlantic to win –290. Low confidence.
Washington State @ Arizona
We’re starting to believe in Arizona, and we’re a little worried Washington State might spiral if things don’t go well. Not because they’ll mentally wilt, but because they’ll know they need to shoot threes to get back in it, and shooting threes to get back in it more often doesn’t work.
Pick: Arizona –13 (–110). Low confidence.
