Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,779 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. No Super Bowl move(s) yet.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 63–57 and we’re down 9.41 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
There isn’t anything in our wheelhouse tonight, but we do think that some football impressions are creeping into the market for this basketball game. Wisconsin is, surprisingly, not an elite defensive team this year. They’re strong on defense, but they’re not among the nation’s best on the defensive end. Paradoxically, they are among the nation’s best at scoring. Nebraska, meanwhile, has been lighting it up, especially at home. Give us points.
Pick: Over 144.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Stanford @ Arizona State
We’d take the moneyline here, but we’ll accept the risk of a push in exchange for an extra four cents on the dollar. ASU isn’t a good team, but they don’t do a whole lot of surprising. This is one they should win, and we think the market is too hesitant because this would mean they’d beaten Stanford twice.
Pick: Arizona State –1 (–110). Low confidence.
