Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 854 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 8% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks for tonight, plus an addition to the futures portfolio.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Presbyterian @ Radford
This pick isn’t so much a vote of confidence in Presbyterian as it is a bet on this game being a slow one. Both offenses are among the lowest-tempo in the nation, and with Radford’s frustrations at the free-throw line, it’s easy to see how even in a game which they control thoroughly, the Highlanders might struggle to pull away.
Pick: Presbyterian +11 (-110). Low confidence.
Chicago State @ Cal State-Bakersfield
Cal State-Bakersfield yields more free throws than any defense in the country, measured on a FTA/FGA basis. Chicago State, for all its flaws, gets to the line with a lot of frequency.
Still, given how much CSB slows it down on offense, it’s hard to see this getting much past a game in the mid-60’s possession-wise. That points to an under with this total.
Pick: Under 131 (-110). Low confidence.
Southern Utah @ Sacramento State
Sacramento State plays very, very slow basketball. They play good defense. They play poor offense.
Southern Utah’s with them on the defense part, and their offense isn’t great either. But. While SUU isn’t exactly a fast-break team, they’re faster than most of the Big Sky, and their offense has benefitted from the emergence of Andre Adams in recent weeks. It might be tight, but a lot of things have to go wrong offensively for the under to win tonight.
Pick: Over 122 (-110). Low confidence.
Future: NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship
It’s time to grab this one. Kansas should be the favorite. They’re more well-rounded than Gonzaga. They’re more consistent than Duke. They’re more proven than San Diego State. They’re stronger on both ends than Baylor. They are very, very good, and significantly more than 10% likely to win the national championship at this point. Yes, these are long odds, but it’s hard to see them getting any longer.
Pick: Kansas to win (+900). Low confidence.
