Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,194 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,257 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball play, we’ve got an NFL play, and we’ve got a little more college football futures mechanizing. Here’s the context on where we’re at in each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 20–13. We’re up 5.06 units and we’re up 15%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 16–21–7. We’re down 6.67 units and we’re down 15%.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down about 43 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value bets. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
Iowa @ Iowa State
I hate to do this, and I do like Iowa State tonight, but we’re trying this free throw approach, and it would say we should expect Iowa State to miss theirs if this lands in a late-game fouling situation, making the final artificially close. That’s a niche scenario, but the strategy banks on that niche being where the fulcrum lies.
Pick: Iowa +8.5 (–115). Low confidence.
New England @ Pittsburgh
We hate this game a lot, and we hate this pick, but given our track record that might be good. We’re taking the Patriots because they’ve only failed to cover this number five times in their twelve games, and the Steelers have only successfully covered this number three times, and while that doesn’t account for home-field advantage or opponent, it does point towards a Patriots team that keeps games close and a Steelers team that keeps games close in the other direction. With the total as low as it is, the implied final score is something like 18–12 Steelers. 17–13 seems more realistic as the median result.
Pick: New England +5.5 (–110). Low confidence.
College Football Playoff
Michigan’s odds ticked longer again, and we’ll gladly take that, with more upside on Alabama still and Movelor showing value on the Wolverines. Combined with this next one, we add the Michigan/North Dakota State combination as a profitable outcome for the portfolio. More to come tomorrow.
Pick: Michigan to win +185. Low confidence. x4
FCS National Championship
With these two units down on NDSU, our FCS portfolio now stacks up as follows:
- Furman wins: +86 units
- South Dakota wins: +66 units
- North Dakota State wins: +55 units
- Montana wins: +2 units
- Left side of bracket wins: –15 units
That’s a lot of upside for what Movelor says has a 35% chance of hitting, 18% of which is on the big-upside routes. If one of those three teams wins, we have about a 71% chance of profiting overall.
We would love an outcome where NDSU and Furman win this weekend, but we’ll probably place a hedge on Montana tomorrow night, ideally on their moneyline against Furman. We need the moneyline to be available, though. Right now, it’s not.
Pick: North Dakota State to win +600. Low confidence. x2
