Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,227 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Tennessee Tech @ Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky seems to be getting as many as four extra points because Tennessee Tech played last night (and got whooped by Xavier). Don’t put too much stock in that aspect of it. In a similar vein, it’s possible the numbers are still catching up to how bad Tennessee Tech is, but they haven’t exactly been free falling, only dropping from a high of 313th in KenPom to 321st right now. Overall, this is probably the best spread you can find tonight.
Pick: Tennessee Tech +13 (-110). Low confidence.
VMI @ Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech will likely slow VMI down, but even if they do, it’ll be exciting to see what their offense can do against a defense this bad.
Pick: Over 137.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Niagara @ Syracuse
Don’t expect Syracuse to play another 86-possession game like they did against Bryant. And while Niagara was a great shooting team last year, don’t expect them to pull off that kind of performance against a team outside the MAAC.
Pick: Under 149 (-110). Low confidence.
