Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,538 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
More bowls, more basketball:
Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota vs. Syracuse
We’re getting into the territory of bowl season where the coaches have coached lots of bowls. P.J. Fleck is 4-2 in them on his career. Dino Babers is 2-0. We’re estimating Babers’s mark to be overvalued.
Pick: Minnesota -10.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Cheez-It Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida State
Hmm, ok maybe we aren’t there yet, actually. This is Brent Venables’s first bowl as head coach. Mike Norvell, meanwhile, is 0-3. We’re riding Norvell to get his first win and then some.
Pick: Florida State -10 (-110). Low confidence.
Alamo Bowl: Texas vs. Washington
Sark is 3-2 career in bowls, though he hasn’t coached one since 2014 (I’d argue Steve Sarkisian’s seeming ongoing recovery is one of college football’s best stories right now). This is Kalen DeBoer’s first, as we don’t count NAIA dominance.
Pick: Washington +3 (-112). Low confidence.
La Salle @ Howard
Howard’s been playing good ball lately, handling FIU and Harvard before escaping from Mount St. Mary’s to take a three-game win streak into Christmas. La Salle has not been playing good ball. The last we saw of them, they were losing by 25 to Lafayette on their own court. We don’t expect the Explorers to bounce back this afternoon.
Pick: Howard +1 (-105). Low confidence.
Chattanooga @ The Citadel
Is KenPom wrong about The Citadel? We’ve picked them three previous times this year and lost all three.
At the end of the day, we don’t know why KenPom would be especially off on these guys, and it’s been a couple weeks since we last played them. We’ll trust that the system’s found its level.
Pick: The Citadel +7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
