Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,922 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
One college basketball game that’s tipping immediately, then today’s bowls:
Wagner @ Fairfield
Wagner’s solid, and the market recognizes that, but Fairfield’s done more than they’re getting credit for.
Pick: Fairfield +1.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Frisco Football Classic: North Texas vs. Miami (OH)
Neither head coach has won a bowl game, but Miami’s has lost fewer.
Pick: Miami (OH) -1 (-110). Low confidence.
Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs. Florida
Florida’s in a coaching transition, but Gus Malzahn has a surprisingly bad bowl record.
Pick: Florida -6.5 (-120). Low confidence.
