Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,516 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
One bowl game, two college basketball plays:
Baylor vs. Air Force
Dave Aranda and Troy Calhoun are each one game over .500 in bowls: Calhoun is 6-5, Aranda is 1-0. Our experiment says to take Calhoun.
Pick: Air Force +3.5 (-108). Low confidence.
Jackson State @ Stephen F. Austin
This game is going to be fast. Bad, but fast. Tempo isn’t only determined by the offense.
Pick: Over 142 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas Southern @ Wichita State
Two good defenses, two bad offenses that like to play slow.
Pick: Under 133.5 (-110). Low confidence.
