Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,268 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.3% across 2,266 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball; college football; NFL; college football futures; NFL futures. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 21–26. We’re down 7.03 units, and we’re 1–13 over the last two weeks. It is going badly.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 76–81–3. We’re down 9.56 units. Again, badly.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 17–26–8, and we’re down 10.76 units. As with the others: Very bad.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down about 22 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value bets unless we explicitly mark them as a hedge. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 13.55 units, or 4.5%.This one’s actually going decently. But there’s time. There’s lots of time.
Boise State vs. Washington State
This isn’t an abandonment of moneyline parlays. That’s still probably our best path forward out of this morass. There aren’t any conference games tonight in the major conferences, though, so we’re rolling with a nonconference matchup. We think Washington State has more little nagging injuries in this one than Boise State does, and with the betting line true to kenpom, which doesn’t consider those, we’re taking the Broncos, going off of that.
Pick: Boise State +2.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Syracuse vs. USF
We’re still in on moneyline underdogs for bowl games. So far, they’re a little below even, but it’s a small sample. We did think we were about to break through in a big way with Marshall the other night. Then, the rest of the game happened.
Pick: USF to win +140. Low confidence.
New Orleans @ LA Rams
In the Saints’ last three games, they’ve twice won comfortably and once played the Lions close. That’s not a bad recent trend. As has often been the case this year, the Saints feel like they’ve been playing terribly, but then one looks up and their record is decent. They might not be that bad a team (there also might be a little self-fading going on here).
Pick: New Orleans +4 (–110). Low confidence.
Sugar Bowl
Today’s eight units are going to Texas to beat Washington in the Sugar Bowl. Aside from South Dakota State, this is the remaining game in which we feel most confident among those in the Division I national championship pictures. This comes at a much better price than the Jacks.
Pick: Texas to win –173. Low confidence. x8
AFC South
We don’t have upside on the Colts, but we do have upside on the Texans, and that gives us a little leverage here. Combined with the value the Jags present (they’re more stable than either of the teams they’re tied with), that’s enough for two units today.
Pick: Jacksonville to win –140. Low confidence. x2
AFC East
This wipes out our Dolphins AFC East upside, but we still have more upside on Miami than Buffalo in the postseason, so that feels fine. Again, the value’s there, and there isn’t a lot of value available in these markets right now aside from that on the Ravens and Niners.
Pick: Buffalo to win +230. Low confidence. x2
AFC
On that topic: One more unit on the AFC favorites. It’s a little striking to see these odds so short, but a lot of it is that the 2-seed in the AFC is likely to have a tough matchup, which makes the Ravens’ one-game lead loom large with three games to go.
Pick: Baltimore to win +200. Low confidence.
Super Bowl
Here, it’s more about just how well the 49ers are playing, and how good they are on paper. Better than a 1-in-3 Super Bowl chance? Right now, it looks like yes.
Pick: San Francisco to win +200. Low confidence.
