Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,404 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
World Cup futures, college basketball plays today. For unit context on the World Cup portfolio: We started with fifty units. We’re up 3.5 units so far, with seven pending before today’s was placed.
2022 World Cup
This isn’t the best value we could find, even in our targeted +999-and-shorter window of odds. It’s temporary, though, unlike the other potential play (Australia to advance past Argentina, comparable odds for which should still be available tomorrow and Saturday). So, we’re taking Croatia while we have the opportunity to do so, and we’re hoping the reports of discord within the Belgium camp aren’t overblown in the slightest.
As far as our other interests today go:
In Group F, we have this one on Croatia plus another 9-to-1 play on Morocco to win the group. Ideally, Morocco will win and Croatia will draw, keeping our Croatia angle open and letting us connect on the Morocco swing. We could also reach our optimal result with each winning but Morocco winning by two more goals than Croatia does, but that’s unlikely. In the end, because Morocco’s potential win is here at hand and Croatia’s is hypothetical even if they do advance, Morocco’s our priority.
In Group E, we have plays on everyone but Germany. We have Japan at 7-to-2 to reach the quarterfinals. We have Spain at 7-to-1 to win the whole thing. We have Costa Rica at 8-to-1 to advance past the group stage. Really, then, we don’t have a huge preference on Spain vs. Japan. Ideally, I suppose, Japan would win so Germany’s boxed out, but those are long odds. With Germany vs. Costa Rica, we want a draw or—again, unlikely but ideally—a Costa Rica victory. Most likely, Germany’s finding its way out of this group and it’s Spain carrying our banner. But we can dream.
Pick: Croatia to reach semifinals +900. Low confidence.
Chicago State @ Bethune-Cookman
Chicago State is better than they’ve been. They handled IUPUI in the Toilet Bowl. They convincingly beat Valpo. They didn’t exactly hang with Marquette on Saturday, but the final score was respectable.
They still aren’t very good, though, yet. They have one of the worst defenses in the country, they turn the ball over all the time, and their best way to score is by battering their way to the line, which is a fine strategy but needs support. Bethune-Cookman’s bad too, but they’re better. Or less worse.
Pick: Bethune-Cookman -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Denver @ Houston Christian
Back on our Houston Christian game.
They’re 2-1 for us so far this year, and they keep popping up for a variety of reasons, but one of the contributing factors here is probably Denver’s strong win-loss record, a 6-1 mark in which the best win was either their one-point triumph over Idaho State in Pocatello or their three-point victory over The Citadel in New Orleans. Denver is not good. They’re just 6-1.
Pick: Houston Christian +6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
