Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 749 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
William & Mary @ Saint Joseph’s
William & Mary has been playing some slow basketball of late, with their last two games against Division I opponents consisting of just 69 and 63 possessions, respectively.
Both of these, though, were in line with the tempo their opponents—Old Dominion and Fairfield—prefer to play, and while William & Mary complied, Saint Joe’s is certainly of a different strain than those two opponents.
Expect both teams to get up and down the court. Expect both defenses to underwhelm. Don’t be surprised if it comes down to the wire, and don’t be surprised if you see a lot of three’s jacked up there.
Pick: Over 152.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Hofstra @ Princeton
Two nights ago, Princeton won one of the most exciting games of the season thus far, completing a 16-point comeback over a twelve-minute stretch en route to an overtime victory over Iona. The twelve minutes were impressive. The game itself was not.
It wasn’t a bad game from the Tigers—it was slightly better than they’d been playing, even. It just wasn’t a performance that should recalibrate expectations surrounding the team. It also served as a reminder of the defensive weakness plaguing Princeton.
Hofstra has issues of their own, but on Princeton’s court, this spread should probably only be a point or two.
Pick: Hofstra +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Southern Utah @ Long Beach State
Since Todd Simon took over at Southern Utah, his defenses have consistently exhibited some of the shortest average possession lengths in Division I basketball. This year, they have one of the longest such times.
It’s unclear, without film or a deeper dive into schedules past and present, what’s driving the change, but there are other statistical elements that have shifted. The Thunderbirds’ three-point defense is much, much better. They’re forcing more turnovers. Their overall defense is more efficient by a wide margin, a far cry from the 2016-17 team that was among the nation’s ten worst.
The possibility exists that this is a fluke. Ten games is not the most robust sample, and it’s possible conference play will bring out a different approach. Still, for the time being, the data indicates the team has changed. This total doesn’t seem to be acknowledging that.
Pick: Under 142.5 (-110). Low confidence.
