Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,218 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,257 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball play, and we’ve got an NFL play, and we’ve got our daily college football futures action, and we’ve got our NFL futures for the week. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 20–20. We’re down 1.94 units.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 17–23–7. We’re down 7.76 units.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down a little more than 40 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value bets unless we explicitly mark them as a hedge. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 8.32 units, or 2.8%.
St. Thomas @ Marquette
St. Thomas’s thing is that it plays very slow and shoots a ton of threes. Marquette’s perimeter defense isn’t great by the numbers, but they’ve played a tough schedule and they force a ton of turnovers. We don’t see the Tommies handling the pressure.
Pick: Marquette –23 (–105). Low confidence.
LA Chargers @ Las Vegas
Maybe the Chargers go simple on offense and it works, but the probability of one of these teams falling flat on its face when it has the football seems too high to pass this under up.
Pick: Under 36 (–114). Low confidence.
North Dakota State @ Montana
We don’t have the bonus point as an option today, but we can continue to leverage our NDSU upside on this one, and we’re going to do that. Six more units on the Griz.
Pick: Montana to win –115. Low confidence. x6
NFL Playoffs
The Rams are tied for 7th in the NFC and close against the Commanders, Saints, Giants, and a 49ers team that might be resting its starters. We like these odds on them to make the playoff field.
We have units against the Broncos making the playoffs. This helps hedge against those, and it comes at positive value. We’ve got a similar situation going on with the Browns.
Pick: LA Rams to make playoffs +180. Low confidence.
Pick: Denver to make playoffs +135. Low confidence.
Pick: Cleveland to make playoffs –400. Low confidence. x2
Super Bowl
Finally, we’re putting a little more on the Ravens in the Super Bowl market. We like them to hold onto that AFC top seed, and that is a very valuable spot to occupy.
Pick: Baltimore to win +600. Low confidence.
