Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 419 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Atlanta @ Miami
Josh Donaldson is 33 years old. When he signed a one-year deal in the offseason, it looked like he was placing a bet on himself to do something teams are realizing is rarer than it was once treated: produce into one’s mid-30’s.
That bet appears to be paying off.
Donaldson is not performing at the outlandish levels he did from 2013-2016, in which he averaged 7.3 fWAR over his first four major league seasons. His average wRC+ those years was a 147. This year, it’s a 132. And his defense has slowed, though FanGraphs still pegs him as having contributed 2.4 runs above the average expectation at third base.
Still, he’s producing at a similar level to Nolan Arenado, who checks in at 3.6 fWAR.
He’ll hit the market again this offseason, and while trends and time both continue to work against him, he could be a valuable piece for a lot of ballclubs.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Colorado @ San Diego
Jon Gray’s demotion last year was as dumb as it was short. He had a 3.14 FIP to his name when he went down to AAA, and that’s a number that doesn’t account for Coors Field’s home run susceptibility.
Still, down he went, and right back up he came, and since then he’s been a comparable pitcher to what he’s always been. He finished 2018 with a 4.08 FIP, and he enters tonight with a 4.15 in that category for 2019. He’s at 2.5 fWAR, with his career-high of 3.6 not far out of reach.
With an average FIP over his career of 3.78, it’s fair to call the pitcher a bit disappointing. But at the same time, Gray is only 27, and while he hasn’t replicated the 3.67 ERA he managed over a 20-start 2017, there aren’t many concerning signs. His velocity is the same as it’s been. His slider is drawing the most swings-and-misses it has since 2016, when he threw it about three-quarters as often. He’s giving up harder contact than he has in the past, but over the long term looking backwards, Gray has been a solid starter in a very tough environment ever since entering the MLB in 2015. Over the long term looking forwards, confidence in him would not be misplaced.
Pick: Under 8 (-110). Low confidence.
