Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 942 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Pittsburgh @ Minnesota
JT Brubaker’s been great across two relief outings, striking out seven, walking one, and allowing no runs. Now, he gets a start, and it’s expected he could go as many as four innings.
It’s very unclear what the Pirates will get from Brubaker, but given his success so far, and given the lack of scouting on him, there’s upside here.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +185. Low confidence.
Texas @ Oakland
Mike Minor’s allowed eight runs through not-quite-eleven innings across his first two starts. His velocity is down. Yet, his FIP’s still good (3.36), and his xwOBA’s still in the better half of the league. No, he probably isn’t what he was last year, but that was baked into the expectations. The situation might worsen, but for now, expect him to produce respectable results.
Pick: Texas to win +140. Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ Chicago (AL)
Losing Nick Madrigal to the injured list resets the White Sox to where they entered the season—not a bad place to be, but not what they briefly hoped for. They can still win during his absence, and that of Tim Anderson, and Edwin Encarnación. It’s just a bit harder.
Pick: Milwaukee +1.5 (-180). Low confidence.
