Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,494 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future today, and odds for that come from Bovada due to the lack of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
The two simplest presentations of the Reds’ place in the playoff race are wrong.
The first—that the Reds, as trade deadline “buyers,” are in this thing—isn’t wholly correct. They’re four games back of a team that’s better than them, and that’s just for the second wild card spot, where they’d have to play the Dodgers or the Giants, both of whom, again, are better than them. That game would likely be on the road.
The second—that the Reds, four games back of a team that’s better than them and only for the second wild card spot, are done—isn’t wholly correct either. The Padres are scuffling, and Fernando Tatís Jr. is potentially out for the year with nagging/revived shoulder problems. The Padres weren’t aggressive at the deadline in a way that set themselves up specifically well for this stretch run, instead bringing in a player who helps them in 2022 as well and doing it for what appeared to be something of a bargain. They might be within reach.
Anyway, the Reds can probably be treated as contenders, but tread with caution for as long as Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos remain out of the lineup. Low value here, so low confidence, but there should be enough rested bullpen to take care of this thing.
Pick: Cincinnati to win -240. Low confidence.
Minnesota @ Houston
Again, low value so low confidence, but with Framber Valdez on the mound, this is one the Astros shouldn’t have a problem winning, even without Alex Bregman, even after a late flight back last night from Los Angeles. The Astros are in good shape, both overall and for this weekend set.
Pick: Houston to win -240. Low confidence.
ALCS
This isn’t great value, but it’s positive value, and it gets the Red Sox back to a profitable ALCS winner for us in that market alone (along with the Astros, Yankees, A’s, and technically the Mariners and Angels). It also might not be at this line for long, with Chris Sale potentially returning next week and big opportunities before then to finish off the Blue Jays and get some revenge on the Rays for last weekend.
It might not go that way, but while they’re here, we’ll take ‘em, especially because it will be hard to keep them a profitable option as we pile deeper into the ALCS market over these next two months.
Pick: Boston to win +600. Low confidence.
