Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,388 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line.
ALCS
There’s value on the Mariners today, which is good, because the Mariners are looking highly likely to make the playoffs. FanGraphs has them up to 82.4% on that front, and with a two-game, two-team lead in the Wild Card race, the amount that could go wrong has diminished. Seattle’s taking their chance. We’ll take this chance on them.
Pick: Seattle to win +1600. Medium confidence.
NLCS
It’s fair to say that the vibes in Milwaukee have plummeted, with two losses since the Hader trade, the last on a walk-off home run during an inning he would have pitched. On paper, though, these Brewers are fine, and with a Wild Card route available to them even if they don’t win the Central (and more likely than not, they’ll win the Central), it’s going to take a lot more than a couple losses to the Pirates to keep them out of the picture. Once there? You tell me how you’d like facing Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes in a three-game series.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1400. Medium confidence.
