Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,102 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks.
One MLB moneyline today, two MLB futures, and one college football pick against the spread. Context on each market…
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 87–59–4, we’re up 20.53 units, we’re up 14% (the average line on our winners has been –109). We are on a two-game losing streak after winning eleven straight. I am bothered.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 70.74 units, or 9.4%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 1–2. We’re 1–1 on FBS games like tonight’s.
Atlanta @ Los Angeles
None of today’s few games fit our parameters, so we’re taking a shot on Atlanta despite their bullpen fatigue. What our read is here is that 1) Lance Lynn’s still having a tough year, even with better results since getting out of Chicago, and 2) the Dodgers are hot enough that their heat is probably being overvalued. Is a team that’s 25–4 in August hotter than one that’s 20–8 on the month? I mean, they’ve played better baseball, but it’s hard to say it’s necessarily predictive.
Pick: Atlanta to win –139. Low confidence. (Strider and Lynn must start.)
World Series
There’s still value on favorites in the World Series market, and it’s useful value for our portfolio, which is still low on Houston and is heavy on Atlanta but without much upside. This time of year, we end up making a lot of similar plays in futures markets day over day.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win +800. Medium confidence.
Florida @ Utah
We have a college football theory which says that individual players aren’t as important as they are in the NFL. Utah quarterback Cam Rising being expected not to play tonight, then, creates an opportunity for us. If this theory is correct.
Really, we’re expecting a double effect here: We think the market is overvaluing Rising, but we think it’s overvaluing Florida as well. Utah has struggled with game-to-game consistency recently, but its overall product has been among the ten best in college football over the last two seasons. Maybe Florida’s gotten a lot better, but last year’s result in this game—which happened in Gainesville—was an anomaly for each team when viewed in hindsight. Billy Napier was the right hire at the time, and we don’t doubt him to ultimately work out well enough, but we just don’t think it’s likely that he’s made this much progress this fast.
Pick: Utah –4.5 (–116). Low confidence.
