Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,707 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we look heavily towards our own model.
Active markets today: MLB futures, MLB moneylines, college football futures, and college football bets against the spread.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 150–127–3 so far this year, down 6.21 units. Over the last three weeks, we’ve been trying a different collection of approaches. So far, that effort is 38–25, up 6.59 units. We’re over halfway back to even, but we’ve been over halfway back to even before.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
College football futures: Our history here is decent. We’ve generally made small profits, but only small ones, and last year got admittedly dicey (we eventually broke even by piling on South Dakota State and Michigan in their respective national championship games). This year, we’re doing two separate futures funds: The first is our normal one for team futures. It’s 150 units large, and we’re investing five units per week. The second is a new one to bet the Heisman market. It’s 100 units large, but we’ll bet a variable number of units per week.
Single-game college football bets: Our history here is mediocre, and we’re 0–1 so far this year.
Anaheim @ Detroit
Heat Index, the star of our recent resurgence, is now 17–4 over its three-week sample, up 7.05 units of 34%. The Tigers are the seventh-hottest team in baseball as we measure it (wRC+ & FIP–). The Angels are the second-coldest. The Tigers are going for the sweep here, and so are we.
Pick: Detroit to win –171. Low confidence. (Kochanowicz and Montero must start.)
Toronto @ Boston
Heat Index 2, which is just Heat Index’s second choice, completes its first full week today. So far, it’s 6–0, up 4.72 units. It’s in on Toronto, whom we’ve bet the last two nights under Heat Index 3. Our recency sample is three weeks large. If the Red Sox really have their feet back under them, that sample won’t have captured it yet.
Pick: Toronto to win +125. Low confidence. (Francis and Crawford must start.)
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Finally, Heat Index 3, Heat Index’s third choice, is 0–2 so far, having bet the Blue Jays each of the last two nights, as mentioned. It’s possible Heat Index can only run two deep, but as we said yesterday, trying this out is how we find out if that’s true. Only the Astros have been hitting and pitching better than Atlanta over the last 21 days, and that hasn’t happened by much.
Pick: Atlanta to win +147. Low confidence. (Morton and Sánchez must start.)
NLCS
With Atlanta’s recent hot stretch has come some significant gains in the standings. They’re now four games clear of the Mets for the final NL playoff position, and they’re closing in on all three of the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Phillies. Most likely, they don’t catch any of those three, but even if they don’t, this should still be valuable. It wouldn’t be outrageous for them to find themselves a Wild Card Series favorite over the Brewers on the road.
Pick: Atlanta to win +700. Medium confidence.
World Series
Same idea here, but the value’s even higher. We’re loading up until the market catches up or offers us something better.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1600. Medium confidence.
Fordham @ Bowling Green
All three of our college football plays tonight come with an eye towards Movelor, our college football model’s rating system. In the first and the third, we’re riding with Movelor’s view of the situation. In the second, we’re betting against it.
Bowling Green took another step forward last year. They made their second Quick Lane Bowl in a row. They beat Minnesota in it. We don’t have BGSU as a particularly good team (Movelor ranks them 99th in Division I), but they should win six or seven games again.
Fordham? Like most of the Patriot League, Fordham is probably overvalued. This league always gets love in the polls—Lafayette is ranked 17th heading into their game against Buffalo—but the postseason performance is questionable and probably misleading. Last year, Lafayette hung with Delaware, but Delaware went on to lose by thirty points in Missoula. Two years ago, Holy Cross played South Dakota State tough, but it was through a major underdog script (aggression, trick plays, turnovers) and they still ultimately lost by three scores. The Patriot League is easy to overvalue. We’ll risk overcorrecting and undervaluing it instead.
(We aren’t betting Buffalo because the turnover in that program is so large. It’s not because we respect Lafayette.)
Pick: Bowling Green –14.5 (–120). Low confidence.
North Dakota State @ Colorado
This is where we diverge from Movelor. Movelor has NDSU favored by 6.2 points on the road against the Buffs. The Bison nearly made the FCS National Championship last year, and Colorado was…Colorado.
We wouldn’t be surprised if NDSU is the better team between these two by year’s end. They’re strong, physical, and can compete in the trenches with almost everyone they’ll play. Their coaching staff is new, but that could be a good thing. As we’ll explain in a post later today, the Bison fell off a good amount under Matt Entz’s leadership.
The problems we foresee for the Bison are composure, altitude, and Shedeur Sanders. It’s going to be a wacky environment tonight. It always is in Boulder these days. It’s not going to be the kind of game NDSU players are used to. That goes for the altitude as well. Big Sky teams are used to the high elevations in Flagstaff and Bozeman, but North Dakota State is an MVFC team. It doesn’t get out into the mountains all that much. Even their game in Missoula last winter was played at around 3,000 feet, not the 5,000 that’ll await them here. This is one place where the resource battle can show up. FCS programs don’t have the same tools to combat altitude as the Big 12 will.
Sanders? He’s a good quarterback. He’s especially an accurate quarterback. He’ll be throwing to receivers with a large athletic advantage tonight. Big 12 teams will have the athletes to match those receivers, but I’m not sure NDSU will. It’s easier to be bullish on their pass rush, but we expect Sanders to often find the open man.
Ultimately, we wouldn’t be surprised if the postgame win expectancy here from systems like Bill Connelly’s SP+ is close to 50%. But we also wouldn’t be surprised, in that scenario, if Colorado uses turnovers and big plays to make it a double-digit final.
Pick: Colorado –9.5 (–115). Low confidence.
Sacramento State @ San Jose State
San Jose State is undergoing a full makeover, but this is no longer Troy Taylor’s Sacramento State. Under Taylor, they blew out Colorado State in Fort Collins in 2022. Under Taylor’s successor, Andy Thompson, they upset Taylor’s Stanford in Palo Alto last year. After that game, Sacramento State went just 5–5. They played a lot of good teams over that stretch, but this is a program likely past its peak. We like Ken Niumatalolo to win his debut in San Jose. We don’t know what happens after that, but we like him to win his debut.
Pick: San Jose State –2.5 (–110). Low confidence.
College Football Playoff
One by one:
Michigan is probably still very good, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They get all three of Texas, USC, and Oregon at home. Between those three and Ohio State, 2–2 might be likelier than 1–3, and even 1–3 could likely earn a playoff berth if the Wolverines avoid blowout defeats. Hype around Ohio State and Oregon is understandably high, but this is still the Jim Harbaugh program, even as it embarks on a new era. We like the value here on what’s probably just a bet on them to finish in the top four in the Big Ten.
Kansas State should be just as good as they were last year, and they were probably a little undervalued last year. There’s turnover, yes, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Chris Klieman improves programs, and all signs point towards him continuing to improve this one. We have them as the Big 12 favorites, and we don’t hate their at-large chances. They have a favorable schedule for piling up respected wins.
Georgia Tech? They’re a deserved longshot, but the ACC is wide open, and they outplayed a Florida State team that should be decent overall. They also get a nice shot at Notre Dame in Atlanta. These seem like odds that didn’t appropriately update after the upset. Maybe they accounted for how good Georgia Tech probably is or for how valuable that victory will be, but it’s unlikely they accounted for both.
We’d rather bet Notre Dame to make the playoff, but the return on that is pretty small. We don’t expect them to be national championship caliber, but their schedule currently appears to be right in that sweet spot where it’s not too challenging but will earn them respect. 12–0 is a real possibility. 11–1 is a reasonable expectation. If they’re worse than 10–2, we’ll have big questions about the program, most likely specifically about how they’re developing talent on the offensive line.
Clemson is the new ACC favorite, and while they aren’t favored over the field, that still gives them a very good path to a very valuable 3-seed. Couple that with just how talented this roster is, and a resurgence is possible enough to want this price in our pocket. Like Notre Dame, we don’t really expect the Tigers to win it all, but they’re likely enough to make the playoff that we think we’ll be glad we have this come November.
These are our first futures of the college football year. Next week, we’ll try to have a tracker up where you can keep tabs on the full portfolio.
Pick: Michigan to make playoff +150. Low confidence.
Pick: Kansas State to make playoff +275. Low confidence.
Pick: Georgia Tech to make playoff +3300. Low confidence.
Pick: Notre Dame to win national championship +2200. Low confidence.
Pick: Clemson to win national championship +5000. Low confidence.
Heisman Trophy
We’re very disappointed to not find odds on Quinshon Judkins in the books we reference. Our expectation is that Will Howard will be underwhelming, especially statistically. If Ohio State is dominant, eyes might turn towards his partner in the backfield. Hopefully Judkins’s odds appear before they get too short. (It would’ve been a longshot regardless, so we’re likely saving a unit either way.)
With Mason Graham also unavailable (don’t underestimate that Michigan defense or the prospect of a lot of quarterbacks underwhelming), we’ll take Miller Moss and Drew Allar.
Moss has the opportunity to put up huge numbers under Lincoln Riley, and USC can’t be worse on defense…right? We don’t really expect them to make the playoff, but the chance is high enough and correlated enough with a big season from Moss that we like this price.
Allar is a weirder one, but the guy was a great recruit and Penn State should be pretty good. Again, this is about value. We’re not trying to call Moss or Allar (or Judkins or Graham) the Heisman favorite. Our goal with these is to amass valuable chips and stay one step ahead of the horse race.
Pick: Miller Moss to win +2800. Low confidence.
Pick: Drew Allar to win +4000. Low confidence.
