Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 994 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Colorado @ Arizona
Kyle Freeland and Zac Gallen are off to great starts, and neither’s a bad pitcher. Still, each is most likely closer in true ability to his FIP (4.49, 3.72) than to his ERA (2.87, 2.25). Expect some regression.
Pick: Over 8 (-115). Low confidence.
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
John Means is capable of disastrous results. His 10.13 ERA over four starts is a 10.13 ERA over four starts. Ryan Yarbrough isn’t a lockdown opponent either. His 5.20 FIP is the eighth-worst among the 56 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 30 innings this year. With Kevin Kiermaier leaving yesterday’s game early with back spasms, the Tampa Bay defense might be that much worse tonight…and it’s offense might be that much better.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
