Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,510 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
For the future today, the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Minnesota @ Boston
The Red Sox are stumbling. Sure. They’re 9-14 since the trade deadline. Over that stretch, they’re only 8-7 against teams not named the Rays or the Yankees. That difference is still key, though, because it points less to a team falling apart than it does to two teams who are each outrageously hot. Over that same stretch, the Rays are 17-6. Over that same stretch, the Yankees are 20-4. The Red Sox aren’t playing well, but they’re not in free fall.
Anyway, Chris Sale’s been lights out since returning, the lineup’s healthy, and the best parts of the Boston bullpen should be available. This fits the “won’t-lose” category we’ve been testing out.
Pick: Boston -1.5 (-150). Low confidence.
ALCS: Division of Champion
Put this one down yesterday as well, but it’s still there and the Rays are still a hole for us in a general sense, so we’ll keep taking it. The way this part of our portfolio’s structured (twelve units down in total, payouts go HOU – 19, TBR – 9.2, NYY – 20.2, BOS – 31.2), we’ve got a good chance of entering October with the White Sox as our only ALCS hole, which sets up some decent hedging options should we want to explore that route.
Pick: AL East +130. Medium confidence.
