Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,090 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One moneyline today, two futures.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 82–57–4, we’re up 19.84 units, we’re up 14% (the average line on our winners has been –107). On the month of August, we’re up 6.91 units, and we’ve won six straight.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 74.43 units, or 9.9%.
Colorado @ Tampa Bay
There’s nothing on the board today which meets our parameters, and not a lot comes particularly close. We do, though, see evidence from time to time that in games like this one—when one team has a lot to play for and the other doesn’t, and the team with a lot to play for is specifically looking for a late-season sweep—the favorite can be undervalued. We’ll take a chance on that, even with so little upside.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –255. Low confidence. (Lambert and Armstrong must start.)
World Series
No portfolio machinations today. We’re happy with where that all lies, and we’re looking for value.
Atlanta continues to be a valuable option in futures markets, which is remarkable given they’re the best team in baseball. We usually don’t see that. The thing with this roster is that it’s just so much better than everybody else’s, and it doesn’t hurt to have two top-15 starters on paper (using FanGraphs Depth Charts, as usual) in the form of Spencer Strider and Max Fried.
The Brewers don’t have two top-15 starters on paper. They do, though, have two in the top 16, and they have three in the top 25. This is another Milwaukee team that’s built pretty well for October. The offense isn’t great, but the pitching makes up for it, and they’ve had a great week so far, picking up two wins and two days of rest. They’ve got a bigger lead in the NL Central than the Orioles do in the AL East. It’s unclear whether markets are seeing that.
Pick: Atlanta to win +310. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +2800. Medium confidence.
