Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,630 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 109–96–3 so far, down 9.93 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge. We got smoked yesterday.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Baltimore @ Cleveland
These teams are similar in type. They’re both young overachievers. The Orioles made an effort to get a little older at the deadline, retooling their outfield mix, but these teams are similar in type.
The type that these teams fit is a hard one to bet. It’s a type of team who outperforms projections to the extent that it becomes fair to question said projections. Against each other, though, that mostly washes out. You’re left with Team A against Team B. In this case, the matchup favors Team B.
Ben Lively is better than Trevor Rogers.
The Guardians’ bullpen is better and better-rested than Baltimore’s.
Those retooling moves the Orioles made aren’t guaranteed to work out. Their bench is a lot weirder than it was a few days ago. Austin Slater isn’t very good. Neither is Eloy Jiménez. Each could bounce back, but there isn’t the seamlessness the Orioles enjoyed for so long with their prospect cohort. Also, we’re waiting with bated breath to see whether Jackson Holliday’s MLB at-bats go better this time around. If they don’t, the O’s are really going to miss Jake Westburg.
Rain might become a factor, but that again favors the better-bullpenned team. Hopefully, the game just finishes before the water starts to fall.
Pick: Cleveland to win –107. Low confidence. (Rogers and Lively must start.)
World Series
The two main ramifications of the Yankees sweeping the Phillies are that the Yankees won and the Phillies lost. The first helps keep the Yankees valuable in this space, where we’ve been hitting them the last few days. With this bet, the Yankees are now a break-even scenario for us in the World Series market, at least momentarily before we place tomorrow’s bets. An argument could be made that they’re the World Series favorite right now, but you could probably make that argument about four teams.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +600. Medium confidence.
NLCS
With that second ramification, the Phillies losing, opportunity opens up on Atlanta. A lot is still going wrong for Atlanta, but they’re only six back of Philadelphia in the loss column.
Even in the very likely event the Phils hold onto the East, it’s nice to have the Braves back to being a profitable scenario for us in the NLCS market. They’re one of the best teams in the National League, and they’re likeliest to wind up as the 4-seed. They, of all the teams, know well how chaotic the playoffs can be.
Pick: Atlanta to win +650. Medium confidence.
