Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,505 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The odds for the futures come from Bovada due to the lack of a current/accurate Vegas consensus online. First, though:
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
Shane McClanahan’s been lights out, Jorge López has been the opposite.
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (-180). Low confidence.
NL West
The Dodgers pulled within three games of San Francisco last night, which is close enough to leave them the favorites in many eyes. They’re just that good on paper.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -110. Medium confidence.
NLCS
We’ve been hitting the Brewers alone at lower odds than these NL Central ones, which raise our Reds floor. We’ve also been hitting Atlanta at lower odds than theirs today, and we aren’t going to stop now.
Pick: NL Central team to win +500. Low confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +900. Low confidence.
