Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,391 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line.
NL Central
Doubling up today, and erasing some liability in the process. There’s narrow value on the Cardinals, and while we’d love to focus on larger value, we don’t want to lose units on the division markets, and the Cardinals and Brewers have conspired to make that a risk. As it stands in realistic scenarios, even if the Cardinals win the NL Central we profit so long as either the Twins win the AL Central or both the Guardians and Mets win their divisions. That gives us better than a 60% likelihood of profiting on this side of the portfolio, and the downside isn’t large.
Pick: St. Louis to win -240. Medium confidence.
Pick: St. Louis to win -240. Medium confidence.
