Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,084 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One moneyline, two futures. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 76–56–4, we’re up 15.60 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August is going well so far.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 73.35 units, or 7.1%.
Boston @ Washington
Patrick Corbin has held on despite his terrible start to the year, and the market seems to be respecting him today. That, or it’s putting a lot of weight in Chris Sale’s pitch count cap. That, or it thinks the Red Sox have some bad vibes, especially after taking it on the chin yesterday? Whatever the explanation, the market really likes the Nats today, and we disagree. The Red Sox are very much a playoff contender, and we think they’ll win the series today, pulling them within 2.5 games of playoff position entering a big weekend in the Bronx.
Pick: Boston to win –174. Low confidence. (Sale and Corbin must start.)
ALCS
The Astros and Rangers are, per FanGraphs, exactly a tossup to finish ahead of one another. They’re each 48.1% likely to win the AL West. We have more downside on Houston in the ALCS market than the AL West market, so we’re in on them here rather than there.
Pick: Houston to win +325. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win +325. Medium confidence.
