Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 437 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Cleveland @ New York (AL)
The Yankees have granted 13 games this season entirely to their bullpen. In those games, they’ve allowed an average of 4.69 runs, not much worse than the 4.61 they’ve allowed when using a conventional starter. They’ve won 12 of the 13, though, a lopsidedly successful record.
It’s such a small sample size that neither the record nor the runs allowed should be taken as significant, especially without adjusting for quality of opponent, weather, and ballpark. But it’s the kind of small-sample-size stat you might see tossed around, either under the narrative of “the Yankees are worse when they use their bullpen because they allow more runs” or the narrative of “the Yankees hardly ever lose when they use their bullpen.” Neither is necessarily true, predictively.
Instead, when forming an expectation for how strong the Yankees should perform in a bullpen start, a more meaningful number is that even including very short starts made by relievers (such as the one Chad Green will make tonight), the Yankees’ bullpen has a 4.03 FIP, significantly better than the 4.64 provided by their regular starters. And if FIP isn’t your thing, ERA shows an even larger gap: 4.15 for the bullpen, 4.94 for the rotation.
Pick: New York (AL) to win (-160). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Philadelphia
Nicholas Castellanos is having a very good month, injecting some life into the Cubs lineup by way of the two-hole. In his 13 games since coming to Chicago, he’s compiled a 194 wRC+, with five home runs and six doubles among his 20 hits.
In recent years, there’s been a growing movement to put the team’s best hitter in the second spot in the lineup—the logic being that it balances out maximizing their at-bats with putting runners on base ahead of them. Over the course of the season, that would point to installing Kris Bryant in the Cubs’ two-hole on a permanent basis. And over the rest of the season, Castellanos shouldn’t be expected to be the Cubs’ best hitter. But since August has dawned, he’s been just that. Which, when looking at the lineup, means he’s been a perfect fit.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-115). Low confidence.
New York (NL) @ Atlanta
Marcus Stroman has always been good. He was the victim of some bad luck last year (.326 BABIP, 60.5% LOB rate), which led to an ERA of 5.54 overshadowing his 3.91 FIP, but in all his major league seasons to date, he’s put together a FIP under four.
This year, though, is the best since his rookie year when it comes to FIP. He’s at 3.53 in the metric, and with his luck turning around (.307 BABIP, 73.8% LOB rate), it’s translated to a 3.20 ERA.
As a rookie, it took him a while to find his way into the rotation, so he only threw a little more than 130 innings, turning his 2.84 FIP into 3.4 fWAR. He’s at 3.1 fWAR right now across 135 innings. So while his performance on a per-game basis might not be the best of his career, he’s on the verge of supplying the most value he ever has. And with the Mets trying to hold on to the gains they’ve made in the NL playoff chase, that value figures to be put to good use.
Pick: New York (NL) to win (+112). Low confidence.
