Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,388 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, plus another 520 in reserve in case we need to hedge down the line.
NL Central
There’s narrow value on the Cardinals today, and with them our biggest concern on the division side of things, we’ll gladly take it. Between this and the next one, we still have some unprofitable realistic scenarios (those in which St. Louis wins the NL Central and either Chicago or Cleveland wins the AL Central), but they’re very narrowly unprofitable.
Pick: St. Louis to win -120. Medium confidence.
AL Central
There’s value on a different team in the AL Central every week, and sometimes within a week. When we capture it on one or both of our current lower-payout options, it bats the ball higher in the air. Right now we’re looking at a minimum return, within the AL Central market specifically, of 13%. Not outrageous, but solid, and rising.
Pick: Cleveland to win +175. Medium confidence.
