Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,078 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both the moneyline and futures today. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 73–52–4, we’re up 16.11 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August is going well so far.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 77.77 units, or 7.5%.
Atlanta @ Pittsburgh
Atlanta hasn’t looked bad these last few weeks, but they’ve been vulnerable, with only a 12–11 record since the All-Star Break and most of those games against teams currently unlikely to make the playoffs. Bryce Elder does not come in clicking, with a 6.87 FIP over his last five starts as regression takes hold in a mighty way. We don’t like picking teams out of the race this time of year, and we don’t like betting against the best team in baseball, but it’s a funky board today and with the early start, we appreciate the upside this presents.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +166. Low confidence. (Elder and Falter must start.)
NL Central
The value is good here, and this also helps us practically, building a bigger position on Milwaukee to win the Central. As it stands, we’ll now lose 8.31 units on the division markets if all six current favorites (Atlanta, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Texas, Baltimore, Minnesota) hold on. We don’t like that, but we feel good about the chances of the Rays flipping the AL East (which would net us 30.98 units), our downside is only an additional 1.31 units if the Astros flip the AL West, and while this changes our preferred NL Central champion from the Cubs to the Brewers, we’d rather have the favorite than the underdog as our better scenario, speaking objectively.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –125. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –125. Medium confidence.
