Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,776 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Our MLB futures portfolio effort continues, and if you missed yesterday, what we’re doing here is investing 520 units over the course of the regular season (with 520 more units in reserve for hedging and the postseason) in an effort to get our all-time results back to a positive average return. We have a strong history in MLB futures, hitting on a lot of Nationals picks in 2019 and plays across the board last year, with only a small loss in 2020. Feel free to join us. Yesterday we went in on Atlanta to win the World Series at 12-to-1 and Minnesota to win the AL Central at 5-to-1. Two more today. Two more every weekday.
ALCS
There is a very good chance one of these two teams gets a bye to the ALDS. North of 80%. It’s a long way off to think about pitching, but this is part of the problem with these odds: Teams who get the ALDS bye will have home field advantage and a chance to set up their pitching, something that will especially benefit teams with clear aces and clear lesser arms. This matchup isn’t the most likely ALCS—that would be Blue Jays/Astros—but it’s the second-likeliest, and it’s available at good value, and we’re going to jump on it while it’s here. It’s a good first foot in the water in the American League pennant portfolio as a whole.
Pick: Houston to win +575. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York to win +650. Medium confidence.
