Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,813 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’ve got two MLB futures and one MLB pick. For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
World Series
This and the next one are lower value among the futures we’ve got in so far, but they’re positive value, and we value breadth in our portfolio. It helps to have even just a little bit down on everyone we can have, and with plays already in on Arizona and San Francisco (and Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, relevant below), this helps us.
Pick: San Diego to win +950. Medium confidence.
NLCS
One development we’re seeing play out in the markets is that bettors don’t seem to believe that the Dodgers aren’t as good as they’ve been. Expect a correction on that at some point. Maybe it’ll work out, but the roster is merely good. It’s good, definitely good, do not write off the Dodgers, but it isn’t great. Water should find its level, and if it doesn’t, we’ll happily continue to take the field.
Pick: St. Louis to win +1000. Medium confidence.
San Francisco @ Chicago (AL)
The Giants wrap up their opening road trip today, looking for a series win over the White Sox after dropping two of three in the Bronx.
We like this line primarily because of Alex Wood. He’s a great candidate for a bounce-back season, with a FIP of only 3.76 and an xERA of 4.00 against an ERA of 5.10 last year. FIP and xERA are more predictive than ERA, and it doesn’t hurt that Wood was also solid in 2021, placing sub-4.00 numbers in all four categories. That tells us there’s some value here, especially against Lance Lynn, who’s getting up there in years and had some bad underlying numbers in his opening start.
Pick: San Francisco to win +112. Low confidence.
