Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,118 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: College basketball and Major League Baseball, in futures markets and on single games.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 145–117–2 and we’re down 12.14 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss. It’s been about a 50/50 season. We’re down about five percent.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week (lost about five percent of the portfolio), and we then rallied (making half of that back), and then we were about to be in a great spot heading into this weekend but Duke lost, sending us to a projected eROI, right now, of –15% based on our model’s probabilities. We’re heavily in on Indiana State tonight. We’re heavily in on Purdue and Alabama as well.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 3–4 so far, down 1.71 units.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We plan to place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays.
Seton Hall vs. Indiana State
My gut reaction to seeing this total was to go for the under. Seton Hall, I assumed, would slow this game down and try to work for good matchups against Indiana State’s defenders. Then I checked my gut against Seton Hall’s recent results, and…these guys have been running a little bit. They scored 91 against UNLV. They played a 74-possession game against Georgia. They’re not a run-and-gun team, but they’re strong offensively and they don’t play as slow as it feels like they play. We expect another high-scorer tonight at college basketball’s greatest barn.
Pick: Over 159.5 (–110). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
This is just a moneyline, but it fits into our futures portfolio because it’s made in the context of those other bets.
What this does for us, primarily, is add a little bit of positive value. That’s always the focus. Positive value until hedging really makes sense. What this does for us, secondarily, is get our assortment of “make national championship” bets to a place where if Purdue beats NC State, we don’t lose any further ground, even if UConn does beat Alabama.
Pick: Purdue to make national championship –430. Low confidence. x27
Cleveland @ Minnesota
It’s another day where everything either doesn’t present value or presents too many red flags to feel comfortable. The red flags with this one are that all of the Twins’ best relievers pitched yesterday, and they all threw more than 15 pitches. They’ll probably be available, but they probably won’t be as effective as normal.
Given the absence of other good options, we’re still riding with Minnesota here. They’re fairly likely to win, something which is always helpful in the absence of great value, and there’s a game script where the bullpen piece doesn’t matter. Pablo López isn’t a bad guy to get behind.
Pick: Minnesota to win –152. Low confidence. (Bibee and López must start.)
AL West
Even with the slow start, the Astros are the AL West favorite, as well they should be. The Astros are a long way from panic mode.
Pick: Houston to win +120. Medium confidence.
AL East
In the East, don’t count out the Red Sox. Sure, they’re the likeliest last place team, but the bats remain great. These odds are just a little too long to not take.
Pick: Boston to win +2000. Medium confidence.
