Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 151 completed bets (there are outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 55% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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Nothing in baseball looks great today (as far as the lines go—this isn’t an editorial on the Cubs and late leads), but the NIT and CIT Championships are tonight, and each has some favorable action available.
As always, KenPom is a treasure and you should get a subscription if you like numbers and you like basketball. Also, don’t sleep on ESPN’s BPI.
As always, lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this.
CIT Championship: Green Bay @ Marshall
These teams rank twelfth and fifth, respectively, in adjusted tempo, and neither is bad offensively, while both are pretty bad defensively. In other words, this could be a very fun game.
Green Bay can’t let Marshall burn them too badly from behind the arc. Marshall needs to protect the paint better than they normally do.
I’m hesitant on the spread, but it’s swung just a little bit too far in Marshall’s direction, even with the game in Huntington.
For the total, I’m unsure why it’s dropped, but encouraged that it has, because it gives some cushion to a game likely to end up in the 170’s or higher.
Pick: Green Bay +5.5
(-110). Low confidence.
Pick: Over 167 (-110). Low confidence.
NIT Championship: Texas vs. Lipscomb
Bettors seem to be putting a lot of stock into Texas’ ability to slow games down, which is fair given their performance as of late.
Lipscomb will contribute to the tempo too, though, and with Texas’ perimeter defense normally much worse than its outcome suggested Tuesday night, the Longhorns might have their hands full with Garrison Mathews, Kenny Cooper, and even the Matt Rose/Nathan Moran/Michael Buckland trio.
The spread is fair for this one, but the total’s too cautious.
Pick: Over 143 (-110). Low confidence.
