Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,379 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Boston @ Texas
The only profitable path here is for Boston to win by exactly one run, something that is more unlikely than virtually any single-game bet we make. If your book offers odds on that specifically, betting on it that way might expose you to a smaller vig (but it might not—check before you blindly go that route), but either way, here’s the thought process behind it:
Roughly thirty percent of major league games are one-run games. With Boston favored, it stands to reason that at least fifteen percent of instances—were this game played in a million different universes—would result in a one-run Boston win.
There are other factors at work here. The over/under’s relatively high, which could theoretically translate to fewer one-run games (more scoring widens the possible spread of scores). There are lines of thinking that say whichever team falls behind might use the bottom half of their bullpen and save the top half for a brighter day. These should be considered. But ultimately, with little else any good on the board, what you’re getting here is a low-downside (the most you can lose is less than half a unit) play that mathematically (I’ve got this as a 38.7% chance of a Red Sox win by more than one, a 15.0% chance of a Red Sox win by one, and a 46.3% chance of a Rangers win) comes out to a positive expected return on investment (using those numbers, it’s 1.2%). Yes, you only profit fifteen percent of the time, and there are higher upside plays that can yield similar numbers, but in terms of expected return, this is the best I can offer today.
Pick: Boston to win -115. Low confidence.
Pick: Texas +1.5 (-155). Low confidence.
