Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,804 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
New value! More MLB futures today, as we rise to 68 of 520 units invested (with 520 more units in reserve, waiting for October or September hedging).
NLCS
These are now the longest odds in our portfolio, but looking at the state of the NL, the case for them is pretty evident. The West is strong, but will send a maximum of three teams to the playoffs. The Central isn’t guaranteed to just send one, but is likely to just send one. In the East, Atlanta’s off to a bad start and New York is, well, they’re the Mets. With the Phillies struggling as well, the Marlins are up to a 25% chance, per FanGraphs, of at least making the Wild Card series. Considering the playoffs favor teams with strong front-end starting pitching (which the Marlins have) and considering the Marlins have a solid farm system, should they choose to use it to pick up tools in July, it’s not unbelievable that they could pull this off. Best yet, at these odds we likely won’t ever have to worry about betting on them in the pennant race again unless we’re in a position to set ourselves up with a moonshot. Low downside, high upside.
Pick: Miami to win +4500. Medium confidence.
World Series
This one elicits a similar instinctive reaction of, “Yeah, right,” but is that so wise? The Angels have two of the best ten players in baseball, Anthony Rendon was recently in that mix as well, and the rest of their roster is at least close to average, with a rough farm system but not an entirely worthless one. They’re also off to a great start, and we’ve been waiting for them to put it together, so why is the instinct now that they’re going to pull a Mets? Maybe they will, but at the same time—maybe this is the year they don’t.
Pick: Anaheim to win +2800. Medium confidence.
