Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 179 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Fangraphs is great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the games.
Arizona @ Pittsburgh
Cole Tucker has been a popular topic online lately—or at least a popular image, provoking the question of whether his popularity stems more from his ability or his hair (the answer is the latter).
Appearance aside, Tucker’s MLB debut has been noteworthy, partially because it came much earlier than anticipated. Entering 2019, Tucker had yet to play above AA, but a small, strong showing in Spring Training (two home runs in 20 plate appearances) and a hot start at AAA have combined with a hole in Pittsburgh’s infield to thrust the 22-year-old Arizonan into an important role.
The scouting report on Tucker has long centered around his arm. Clearly competent at shortstop, the former first-round pick tore his labrum in 2015, but his arm has actually grown stronger in the four years since.
Now, with his defensive ability fairly well-established, the question about Tucker is whether he’ll unlock the power his 6’3” frame might hide. His home run binge (the two in MLB Spring Training, three in 13 games at AAA, one in his MLB debut last week) is an exciting sign, but the sample is small.
Still, for Pirates fans, Tucker is worth getting excited about.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win -110. Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Anaheim
Gary Sanchez returned from injury yesterday, and while he struck out in all four at-bats, the Yankees have to be relieved to have him back.
In the meantime, though, Giancarlo Stanton encountered a setback in his recovery, and Clint Frazier went on the IL, reportedly undergoing an MRI on any his sprained ankle.
Yet, the Yankees sit one and a half games back of the Rays for first place in the entire American League, and Fangraphs has them with the third-best chance (13%) of any team to win this year’s World Series, trailing only the Astros and Dodgers.
Brian Cashman continues to shine.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -101. Low confidence.
Texas @ Seattle
After a disheartening two-game sweep in San Diego in which the Mariners relinquished their early AL West lead to the Astros, Seattle’s lads return to Seattle, looking to heat their bats back up after getting shut out last night.
They likely feel good about their opportunity, as they’re facing hard-throwing lefty Taylor Hearn in his MLB debut. Hearn, while blessed with a powerful arm, isn’t exactly a top prospect, and his debut has been a necessity for the Rangers, not an opportunity.
Still, Hearn does have that strong fastball, and at the very least, April’s heroic masher Dan Vogelbach would probably rather be facing a righty.
Pick: Texas to win +135. Low confidence.
