Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,328 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Happy Opening Day.
Cleveland @ Detroit
Cleveland’s supposed to have a decent team this year.
No thanks to their offense.
Yes, Shane Bieber’s going to make it tough for Detroit to get on the board in the first six innings or so, but even with the wind roaring out to right, the cold weather and Cleveland’s lack of offensive prowess should give the Tigers a good chance to keep this close.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Minnesota @ Milwaukee
The roof is closed in Milwaukee, so while the scoring may be held a bit lower than normal, it isn’t going to be absolutely frigid. I’m guessing this isn’t impacting the total, but I can’t figure out what is impacting the total, because this is an oddly low total.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100). Low confidence.
