Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,820 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Four picks today across MLB futures, our daily MLB play, and our third NBA future of the postseason. Here’s the context.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 9–5, we’re up 3.16 units, we’re up 23% (the average line on our winners has been -110). That 23% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice couple weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
ALCS
The Mariners are severely overvalued right now in futures markets, which helps the Angels more than teams in the AL East and AL Central because it affects whether they’ll make the playoffs in addition to affecting their chances once in said playoffs. It’s always going to be scary picking the Angels until they do break through, but this is good value, and they do have a big incentive to go all the way in this summer and burn the boats before Shohei Ohtani’s free agency.
Pick: Anaheim to win +1600. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Can the Marlins do this? I’m not sure, but at this price, we’re going to sign up. At a glance, their case rests in large part upon what they could do once in the postseason, thanks to how good the front end of their rotation is. That also is a huge deal in the regular season, though. They probably shouldn’t have a conditional split in their odds of making the postseason vs. performing well within it.
Pick: Miami to win +6000. Medium confidence.
Minnesota @ New York (AL)
There’s really only one pick today that meets both our screening criteria (which are currently 1. Whether the FanGraphs probability translates positive expected ROI and 2. Whether either of the starting pitchers has a huge small-sample split), and while Jhony Brito has a great FIP and an even better ERA, his xERA’s weak enough for us to take a flyer on the Twins tonight in the Bronx. In Joe Ryan we trust.
Pick: Minnesota to win +134. Low confidence. (Ryan and Brito must start.)
NBA Finals
Is this the year the Sixers break through? We aren’t convinced, but the market is especially unconvinced, and with Philly favored heavily to get through the first round, we think that’s a little off. Not a bad early piece of the portfolio to get into the mix.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1000. Low confidence.
