Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 168 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Fangraphs is great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications for making the pick. I’m making the pick because the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the games.
Oakland @ Baltimore
As recently as 2017, Dylan Bundy looked like he might become an ace.
Then, last year happened, and this year began, and, well, Dylan Bundy doesn’t look like an ace.
There aren’t any magic numbers saying Bundy is going to turn into what it once appeared he might be, but it’s worth remembering that he’s only 26. Yes, it’s now been eight years since he was the fourth overall draft pick, but he’s still only 26. And he’s been, for the most part, healthy. It’s possible his career is still young.
Pick: Orioles to win +140. Low confidence.
Toronto @ Boston
The Red Sox are in last place in the AL East, and with a loss today, they’d fall two games back of the Blue Jays…for fourth.
What’s gone wrong so far?
Well, four-fifths of the rotation has performed horribly so far, Andrew Benintendi is cold at the plate, and Jackie Bradley Jr. is frigid. Matt Barnes has been one of the team’s most valuable players, and while closers are important, that’s a bad sign.
At any moment, of course, the Red Sox could wake up, put themselves in the race, and make the past two weeks a bemusing anecdote when 2019 is said and done. And it appears more likely than not that this is exactly what’ll happen. After all, the starting pitching’s performance couldn’t be worse, and the rotation, on paper, should be a strong one. Also in their favor is the remaining schedule: they have yet to play the Orioles.
For the time being, though, Boston will continue to sweat, and another poor start by Nathan Eovaldi tonight would only fan the fears.
Pick: Toronto to win +170. Low confidence.
