We always bet the Daytona 500. We’ve never won. Allow us to explain.
Daytona 500
Superspeedway NASCAR is chaos, and while the NextGen car has changed how these races go down, superspeedway NASCAR is chaos. It’s not as simple as drawing a winner out of a hat, but that’s the starting point. Any effort to handicap this race should start with every car at 40-to-1 odds. From there, adjust as necessary: The Fords were fast in qualifying. Toyota grabbed the pole and won one of the Duels. Drivers who’ve won at a superspeedway receive an understandable boost. Cars with poorer equipment are less likely to hold up the entire race. Still, I don’t think I’ll ever feel confident that I’m getting good value at Daytona at a price shorter than 35-to-1.
22 of the 41 drivers have odds this morning past that 35-to-1 threshold. Eight have odds of 70-to-1 or longer. Of those eight, we like Corey LaJoie the most. It doesn’t hurt that his odds are more than 50% longer than even some of his fellow biggest underdogs.
We almost won with LaJoie at Atlanta a few years back. He always did a good job in the pre-NextGen era of hanging around the back of the pack at superspeedways. The wisdom of that approach has changed in this era, with track position more important, but it’s not a complete overhaul. Survival is still a large portion of the game. Stage points don’t matter much to a driver like LaJoie, who’s running a part-time schedule this year for the small-moneyed Rick Ware Racing. Should he be a favorite? Absolutely not. But he probably shouldn’t be one of the three last cars on the board, even if engine failure’s likelier with his ride than it is for most of these guys. His speed was fine in qualifying and the Duels. 125-to-1 is a long, long price. We’ll take a shot, but we’re only putting one unit down this time around.
Pick: Corey LaJoie to win (125-to-1). 1.00 unit to win 125.00.
South Dakota State @ South Dakota
Speaking of chaos, you can’t tame the Coyotes. South Dakota plays an aggressive, speedy offense that mostly consists of going straight at the hoop. They also play little defense.
Against South Dakota State earlier this year, the game reached 74 possessions. Kenpom has the rematch projected to hit 75. In eleven Summit League games featuring USD, only two had a final possession count lower than 74. South Dakota State’s the second-fastest team in the Summit League. We trust that 75 number.
I think people hesitate with overs this large when they don’t know the teams involved. With something like Alabama and Auburn yesterday, overs are tempting. With this game, there isn’t the same public viewership effect. Will South Dakota State score 100 against this South Dakota defense? Honestly, maybe. The Jacks have averaged 100 their last two games playing against slower-paced teams with better defenses. 100 is not normal, but we also don’t need 100. 90 or more from the Jacks should be enough to get it done. The ‘Yotes will get theirs.
Pick: Over 172.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Iowa @ Maryland
Here too, bettors seem to be shy about the total. It’s a big number, but these are fast-paced, offense-focused teams. Maryland’s substantially better, but that doesn’t hurt us either against an opponent likely to respond to a deficit by hoisting even more aggressively.
They’re both big numbers today. Even LaJoie’s is a big number. That should make for a fun afternoon.
Pick: Over 160.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –115.58 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 80 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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