A lot happened last night, and we’re making some changes to how we’ll determine our unit, so we’ll start with all of that:
- First, I don’t know if our new-ish MLB moneyline approach is good or not, but it’s 4–3 and the odds have said it should be 3.92–3.08. Good day for it yesterday.
- Second, the Thunder losing Game 6 is bad for our NBA futures portfolio, and we’ve really opened ourselves up to getting tortured by the Pacers in Game 7. If that happens, though, it’s hard to be too upset. We knew we were taking risks as we tried to maximize upside, and we had a good run with the Pacers ourselves before abandoning them.
- Third, we’re done with the anti-Rockies thing. I’m worried they’ll crumble again and that we’ll have pursued the strategy during the only time of the season when it didn’t work, but it’s a strategy that requires a big leap of faith. The Rockies are getting 25% discounts on moneylines. Their opponents are really expensive. That should have been a bigger red flag to us when we hopped on board so late.
- Fourth, we’re changing our structure a little bit. I’ve realized, with our approach so futures-heavy, that it’s possible to do an annual cadence which runs from the start of baseball season through the end of the NBA or Stanley Cup Finals (whichever ends second). There’ll be overlap every year, but we can handle that when it gets here. More on that:
We’ve currently got a balance of 601.52 units, with 234.77 of those units pending on the NBA Finals and a couple hundred pending on MLB futures. Our MLB futures portfolio is supposed to be 750 units large, but we only plan to place 520 of those in the regular season, and we’ll get a bunch back in September as divisions get clinched. The bottom line? If the Thunder win Game 7, we’ll have 624.63 units, including a lot pending on MLB futures. If we set aside the 520 of those which are earmarked for regular season betting, that leaves a 104.63-unit bankroll for daily bets.
We’re mostly believers in the idea behind the Kelly criterion—the idea that you should maximize longterm expected value. There are caveats, but those don’t really dissuade us from using it here. We’re doing this recreationally, not betting more than we can afford to lose (especially here, where for intents and purposes this is paper betting). We’re doing an annual effort, so if we dig a big hole, we can start over the next year. We’re also going to be applying the formula to a small portion of our total bankroll—currently about 17% of our total.
So, we’re going full Kelly with the daily bets portion of our bankroll. If you wish, you can consider this an homage to Joe.
Atlanta at Miami
Sometimes top-100 prospect Didier Fuentes debuts tonight, but don’t expect him to last too many innings. He’s pitched five innings or fewer in every start since April 12th, and he’s coming off a brief layoff between his May 24th start and his start this past Saturday.
Still, we like the Braves tonight. Janson Junk has a great FIP, but he’s giving up some of the hardest contact in baseball. The Marlins are worse than they’re getting credit for being—so bad that they’re still behind the Nationals even after the Nationals lost eleven games in a row. The Braves swept the Mets, and while that could prime a questionably focused team for a letdown, we’re more worried about the bullpen, which…wasn’t taxed too heavily these last two nights.
As for our unit:
The big question with the Kelly criterion is how to get the variable “p,” the probability that you win a given bet. For that, we’re using our real win percentage and the odds of games we’ve bet using this current spot-oriented approach. In effect, then, “p” is whatever probability implies a 2.09% expected return. That’s for today. If we outperform the odds today, it’ll go up tomorrow. If we don’t, it’ll go down. If it goes negative, we’ll call “p” whatever implies a 1.00% expected return until we either get positive again or abandon the effort.
Pick: Atlanta to win –145. 3.17 units to win 2.19. Fuentes and Junk must start.
New York (NL) at Philadelphia
Sticking in the NL East: Watching the Phillies white-knuckle it through the end of last night’s game, we understand the narrative a little better than we did. Still, they’re winning ballgames, and we think their overall on-paper strength is a little undervalued. Also, it’s not like the Mets are firing on all cylinders. Give us Zack Wheeler.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –180. 3.93 units to win 2.18. Tidwell and Wheeler must start.
Milwaukee at Minnesota
Jacob Misiorowski is physically impressive and also walked more than a batter for every two innings throughout his minor league career. He’s good, but he’s vulnerable. Joe Ryan is one of the best pitchers in baseball and enjoys no notoriety. That’s good for us tonight.
Pick: Minnesota to win –152. 3.32 units to win 2.18. Miziorowski and Ryan must start.
NL East
The Phillies won again last night. The Mets lost again. The Phillies’ odds didn’t move. We’re going to grab this while it’s here, since the Phillies should probably be the division favorite and they’re not. Relatively high probability, not a bad potential payout.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +135. 4.00 units to win 5.40.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –398.48 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 397 single-game markets plus two completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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