Apologies for our absence yesterday morning.
I spent a lot of time barfing on Saturday.
ALCS
The only scenario where our MLB futures portfolio doesn’t profit, given current bets, is the one where the Dodgers beat the Mariners in the World Series. This helps a little towards fixing that. Really, though, if it’s Dodgers vs. Mariners we’ll just place a big hedge. Mariners over Dodgers is a great outcome for us. We have leverage.
(The headline is a little glib. The Mariners are liable to have a bit of a letdown today after avoiding it last night, and Yesavage probably isn’t a monster but he might be a monster.)
Pick: Seattle to win –200. 4.00 units to win 2.00.
Chicago at Washington
Nothing unusual here. We trust FPI, and when picking which game to pick, we try to grab the one with more public interest. Our perception might be skewed, having grown up in Illinois, but it seems like there’s probably more attention on Bears/Commies than Bills/Falcons. The fact it’s more of a primetime kick and is on ABC rather than ESPN reinforces that perception.
One note here on unit size: We’re going to run out of cash flow before the end of the LCS, unless one series ends quickly. So expect units to get really small towards the end of this week and then get much larger once a pennant is won. We’re going to get at least 85 units of cash flow back once one ends, and we only have about 35 units right now, with 21 of those needed for this week’s football and hockey futures.
Pick: Washington –5.5 (–110). 1.93 units to win 1.75.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –452.83 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 832 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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