We should’ve trusted Movelor on Virginia vs. Florida State.
Baltimore at New York (AL)
Nothing spot-based today. Only Heat Index. New second choice today: The Yankees.
Pick: New York to win –221. 11.41 units to win 5.16. Sugano and Schittler must start.
Colorado at San Francisco
And Heat Index’s first choice becomes betting against the Rockies. We like Kyle Freeland, but the Coors Light tagline is apt right now.
Pick: San Francisco to win –225. 11.61 units to win 5.16. Freeland and Verlander must start.
Ohio State at Washington
Washington’s better than last year, but Ohio State remains underappreciated. This is the best college football team in the country.
Pick: Ohio State –8 (–113). 2.92 units to win 2.58.
LSU at Mississippi
It’s hard to make a case that LSU’s better than Mississippi. Maybe they are, but it’s hard to make that case. With home-field advantage, Mississippi’s the play this afternoon.
Pick: Mississippi –1.5 (–116). 2.99 units to win 2.58.
Oregon at Penn State
Similarly, it’s hard to see Oregon as being worse than Penn State. To be fair, the home-field advantage should be big tonight: Long travel, white out, already hard to play in Happy Valley. But it’s hard to trust Drew Allar, we haven’t seen much from Penn State so far, and Oregon’s been clicking. The Ducks are a top-five team. Penn State is not.
Pick: Oregon +3.5 (–105). 2.71 units to win 2.58.
Alabama at Georgia
People underrate the transitive property in college football. It’s not nothing that Alabama got run off the field by a team who lost to Virginia. This line is nuts. Maybe I’m about to get embarrassed.
Pick: Georgia –2 (–110). 2.84 units to win 2.58.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –462.78 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 793 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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