Another good day yesterday, bringing us to 10–1–1 over our last four. More today, plus the return of futures.
Detroit at Cleveland
Here’s something that should concern the American League: The Tigers have the 13th-best pitching staff in baseball by fWAR, 8th-best by FIP, and 9th-best by raw runs allowed. Over the rest of the season, FanGraphs projects them to allow the fewest runs per game independent of schedule. Some of this is fielding, but some is that the pitching staff should get a little better as it continues to get fully healthy.
Pick: Detroit to win –128. 17.65 units to win 13.79. Mize and Allen must start.
Texas at San Diego
With the Rangers, we’re excited for Patrick Corbin but we don’t fully buy the renaissance. More than that, we still don’t think that the Rangers are magically a good baseball team despite all evidence pointing to the contrary. That 2023 World Series warped their perception.
Pick: San Diego to win –116. 15.99 units to win 13.78. Corbin and Kolek must start.
World Series
We can get value on the Cubs today, and we’ve only gotten one other postseason future on them, which makes them a priority. For the other, we’re seeing bigger value on the Brewers and Mariners, but the higher probability on the Astros and Phillies makes them a priority as well. We’re going with Houston rather than Philadelphia because we have more on the Phils already and the Houston value is higher.
Pick: Houston to win +1100. 2.00 units to win 22.00.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –375.12 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 450 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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